Perspectives on recession and the economy

Based on a common technical definition of recession—two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth—the U.S. economy appears to have been in recession during the first half of 2022. However, the official definition of recession is more comprehensive and takes into account broad aspects of the economy such as labor market trends and spending. Because the labor market and some other areas of the economy remain relatively strong, many have argued that the U.S. is not in recession. In this webcast we take a look at each side of the argument, briefly touch on the underlying health of the economy, and provide our thoughts regarding how these dynamics may affect markets in the coming months.